Edition · Thursday, April 23, 2026·Archived · 11d ago · historical·23 Apr 2026 13:21 UTC
ESPOSITIVE
Spot7157.00Futures7157.00Basis+34.00SessionREGULAR
Dealer Regime
Positive Gamma - Pin Day Expiration Gravity
NetGEX $66.9MRisk LOW
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Day NORMAL
Desk Thesis · 2026-04-23
Thursday 0DTE positive-gamma pin day - SPX at 7123 is below the expiration pin cluster 7140-7150 by ~17 pts; range-base responsive buy from above HVL SPX 7115 targets the long-vanna magnet zone 7142-7149 and primary call wall 7150; positive Color tightens pin into close; gamma flip at SPX 7065 is 58 pts below spot.
For SPX-ES, operate as a range trader within the positive gamma pin zone. Responsive buys on tests of SPX 7115-7125 targeting 7150 call wall, then 7175 vanna magnet. SPX does not have the trap-door asymmetry that RTY has - the gamma flip is 73 pts below spot. Long vanna + positive Color means the pin tightens progressively so afternoon trades are in tighter bands. Do not initiate new longs above SPX 7175 on a pin day - that is where charm ceiling and call GEX cluster absorb buying.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 7157.00ES
SPX
Level
Action · Distance
ES7294.00
SPX7260.00
CALL WALLExtended Call OI Wall (SPX 7260)
WATCH+1.43% · conf 1
ES7234.00
SPX7200.00
CALL WALLCall Wall Cluster Upper (SPX 7200)
WATCH+0.60% · conf 1
ES7209.00
SPX7175.00
VANNA MAGNETVanna Magnet + Charm Max Growth (SPX 7175)
WATCH+0.25% · conf 0.83
ES7184.00
SPX7150.00
CALL WALLPrimary 0DTE Call Wall (SPX 7150)
WATCH-0.10% · conf 1
ES7176.00
SPX7142.00
DOMINANT ANCHOR0DTE GEX Pin Cluster - Expiration Gravity
WATCH-0.21% · conf 0.83
ES7161.00
SPX7127.00
DOMINANT ANCHOROld Snapshot Pin / Recovery Target (SPX 7127)
WATCH-0.42% · conf 0.67
SPOT
ES7157.00
SPX7157.00
live anchor
ES7149.00
SPX7115.00
HVL FLOORHVL - High Confidence Positive Gamma Floor SPX 7115
WATCH-0.58% · conf 1
ES7134.00
SPX7100.00
PUT WALLNTZ Upper / Put Wall Cluster (SPX 7100)
WATCH-0.79% · conf 0.83
ES7109.00
SPX7075.00
PUT WALLPut Cluster (SPX 7075)
WATCH-1.14% · conf 0.83
ES7099.00
SPX7065.00
GAMMA FLIPGamma Flip - Structural Break Level SPX 7065
WATCH-1.28% · conf 1
ES7044.00
SPX7010.00
STRUCTURAL FLOORDeep Support (SPX 7010)
WATCH-2.04% · conf 0.83
Level Reaction
Intraday tape · ES · 2026-04-23Loading session tape…
Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionGAMMA
UP · 82
Strong positive gamma. 93% of 0DTE gamma within 2% of spot. Gamma stable at 23496 total throughout 6h pre-market. Peak pinned at SPX 7127, no migration. Positive Color means gamma builds and pin tightens throughout RTH.
VANNA
UP · 75
LONG stabilizing vanna - OPPOSITE to RTY. Net +208K VHI. Vol compression actively PULLS price toward long-vanna magnet cluster at SPX 7142-7149, directly above spot. With VIX below 20, structural upward pull is active.
CHARM
DOWN · 88
Charm/gamma ratio 30.19 - extreme. Time decay utterly dominates today. Net negative charm = downward delta pressure below spot. Max charm growth at SPX 7175 = call delta preservation above. Competing forces create and reinforce the pin range 7125-7175.
COLOR
UP · 75
STRONGLY POSITIVE Color - gamma BUILDS throughout RTH. Pin gets tighter and stronger as the session progresses. By 3PM the GEX concentration is at maximum. Creates and reinforces expiration gravity toward SPX 7140-7150.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greekscolor
LATENT
10402.440
—
speed
LATENT
-2.800
—
vomma
LATENT
-25721.830
—
zomma
LATENT
703.250
—
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureRegime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IV13.9%
IV Percentile41
Skew Pctile15
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedZomma Armed
Vvix Above100
Short Vanna Regime
Positive Gex Dampens
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
10
Tension Index
Accuracy Log
Outcomes · last 1 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | ES | NEG GEX TRIGGER@ 7152.00 | SHORT_BELOW | ABSORBED | Opened 7148.25 below the 7152 trigger and sold to 7121.50, but downside follow-through stalled well above 7102. First 30-minute close was 7156.75 and session closed 7152.00, so bearish impulse fired but was absorbed and reclaimed by end of day. |
Total Logged1
Scored1
Hit Rate0%
Best Level Type—
Archive
Recent editions2026-05-04 · ES
ES at 7255 is pulling back from HOD 7271 (was 6pts from HVL 7277) on European close. Gamma peak at ES 7257 (3x build) provides strong PM pin pressure. Structural binary ES 7249 remains key: above = pin toward 7257-7264 with vanna magnets pulling up; below = anti-magnet cascade (7242→7228) to secondary support 7227 and migrated-down dominant put floor ES 7202 (was 7227 — floor weakened). Call wall at 7277 has STRENGTHENED (+$15.46M). 2DTE +$21.76M structural backstop unchanged. Vanna inverted to bullish configuration (magnets now above spot, anti-magnets below).
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED
NEUTRALNEGATIVE—
2026-05-04 · NQ
NQ pulled back sharply from HOD 27940 (within 18 NQ pts of HVL 27958) on European close. Gamma peak has MIGRATED DOWN from 27908 → 27842, creating a new gravitational anchor. Current spot 27863 is 21 NQ pts above the gamma peak. Dominant PM scenario: gravity pull toward gamma peak 27842 and settlement 27840-27880 (6.7x gamma build = strong pin). BEAR RISK: gamma peak 27842 fails → anti-magnet at NQ 27815 (NDX 27697, -18,247) cascades → put wall 27818 → structural floor 27787. EXTREME BEAR: charm 2.16:1 downward pulls toward VOL TRIGGER 27538 = CHARM MAX DECAY ZONE (NDX 27420). Vanna VHI at session minimum (-16,082) amplifies any vol event.
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED NQ OUTPERFORMED
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-04 · RTY
RTY is in razor-thin positive gamma (+$333K, 69% thinner than pre-market) sitting on the vanna anti-magnet/magnet corridor at RTY 2811. Session binary is now RTY 2809 (gamma flip, updated from pre-market 2795): above = magnet staircase to 2820-2832; below = negative gamma air pocket to dominant put wall RTY 2797. ES binary (7252) resolution is the directional catalyst. FALLING charm means the morning window is cleaner than the afternoon.
OPEN AUCTION · ATH TEST WITH NEGATIVE CVD DIVERGENCE
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · ES
Gate 2 triggered via constructive GEX expansion, not deterioration. ES is rotating inside a stronger positive-gamma cage: hold ES 7275 (SPX 7245) and then ES 7230 (SPX 7200) for continued pin/upper-balance behavior toward ES 7280 and ES 7310. Lose ES 7230 and the repair path opens toward ES 7209.44 and ES 7202.94.
IN SESSION RANGE PIN · BALANCE EXPANSION TO ATH
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · RTY
Gate 2 supersedes the pre-market ATH-continuation bias into an upper-balance pin: RTY must accept above RTY 2807-2808 to reactivate the bull path; below RTY 2797 the auction repairs toward RTY 2792 and RTY 2782.
IN SESSION UPPER BALANCE PIN · FAILED BREAKDOWN THEN FULL BALANCE TRAVERSE
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · NQ
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE · BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATH
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · ES
Gate 2 triggered (0DTE GEX +273%): morning bear thesis invalidated. ES accepted above the former call wall (ES 7180 / SPX 7150) post-GDP. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above HVL (ES 7175 / SPX 7145) targets 1DTE call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200), then squeeze extension (ES 7270 / SPX 7240). Failure below ES 7175 (HVL) → gamma crossover risk toward gamma flip ES 7155 and put wall ES 7130.
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · NQ
Gate 3 triggered (vanna sign flip SHORT→LONG): morning bear cascade thesis invalidated. NQ accepted above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) post-GDP. Vanna stabilizing = NQ no longer leads cascade. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) targets 1DTE call wall (NQ 27630 / NDX 27500), then 6DTE call wall (NQ 27830 / NDX 27700). Failure below NQ 27290 (HVL) reinstates bear path toward gamma flip (NQ 27173) then put wall (NQ 27130).
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · RTY
PRE-MARKET STRUCTURE INTACT (no gate triggered) — bear prior persists as RTY remains below VAL (2786), below new HVL (2774), and below dominant call wall (2769). Morning unfinished auction at RTY 2753 is being tested LIVE. Post-GDP resolved catalyst, VIX suppression, rising charm drift, and vanna magnets above shift Scenario B probability to 45%. Tape judgment at RTY 2753 governs whether the bear structural prior is replaced.
IN SESSION AUCTION TEST · B SHAPE SERIES
BEARISH_LEANPOSITIVE—