Edition · Thursday, April 23, 2026·Archived · 11d ago · historical·23 Apr 2026 13:21 UTC
RTYPOSITIVE
Spot2780.00Futures2780.00Basis+10.00SessionREGULAR
Dealer Regime
Positive Gamma - Mean-Reverting Balance
NetGEX $264.5KRisk LOW
Opening Type
OPEN TEST DRIVE
Day NORMAL
Desk Thesis · 2026-04-23
Thursday 0DTE positive-gamma balance day - responsive buying opportunity from range lows RTY 2780 toward the 0DTE pin cluster RTY 2795-2810, with RTY 2775 as the session invalidation level; rising charm trend and vanna magnet at RTY 2805 provide structural tailwinds into the afternoon.
Operate as a responsive buyer at the lower edge of the balance zone RTY 2775-2785. Initial price action test below 2785 is the entry window - hold requirement is RTY 2775. Above 2785 allow trades to develop toward 2795 GEX pin, 2810 call wall, 2820 extension. Do not chase above 2820 on a balance day. Below 2775 with sustained volume respect the negative GEX amplification - reduce size or step aside. EOD drift bias toward 2795 as charm-gamma pin dominates the final hour.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 2780.00RTY
RUT
Level
Action · Distance
RTY2845.00
RUT2835.00
CALL WALLMax Call Wall / Session Ceiling (0DTE)
WATCH+1.97% · conf 1
RTY2835.00
RUT2825.00
GEX MAGNETHVL
WATCH+1.61% · conf 0.83
RTY2820.00
RUT2810.00
CALL WALLCall GEX Cluster (Upper)
WATCH+1.08% · conf 1
RTY2815.00
RUT2805.00
CALL WALLCall GEX Cluster (Lower)
WATCH+0.90% · conf 1
RTY2810.00
RUT2800.00
CALL WALLCall GEX Wall
WATCH+0.72% · conf 1
RTY2805.00
RUT2795.00
VANNA MAGNETVanna Magnet (+6,524) / UT3
WATCH+0.54% · conf 0.67
RTY2798.00
RUT2788.00
GAMMA FLIPGamma Flip - Bull/Bear Pivot
WATCH+0.29% · conf 1
RTY2795.00
RUT2785.00
DOMINANT ANCHOR0DTE GEX Pin / Prior Close Anchor
WATCH+0.18% · conf 0.83
RTY2785.00
RUT2775.00
HVL FLOORLast Positive GEX / NTZ Upper Boundary
WATCH-0.18% · conf 0.83
SPOT
RTY2780.00
RUT2780.00
live anchor
RTY2775.00
RUT2765.00
NEG GEX TRIGGERSession Invalidation - NTZ Lower - Neg GEX Cliff
WATCH-0.54% · conf 1
RTY2765.00
RUT2755.00
PUT WALLMajor Put GEX Wall (-88K)
WATCH-0.90% · conf 1
RTY2760.00
RUT2750.00
PUT WALLSecondary Put Wall (-79K)
WATCH-1.08% · conf 0.83
RTY2730.00
RUT2720.00
PUT FLOORDeep Support / Breakdown Extension
WATCH-2.15% · conf 0.83
Level Reaction
Intraday tape · RTY · 2026-04-23Loading session tape…
Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionGAMMA
UP · 72
Positive gamma regime. 82% of 0DTE gamma within 2% of spot. Gamma doubled in pre-market 594 to 1334 total. Peak migrated toward RTY 2794 - expiration pin converging.
VANNA
DOWN · 68
Short vanna regime. VHI collapsed from avg 3605 to -419 - effectively inverted. Vol expansion pushes prices away from strikes. VIX suppression below 20 pulls price toward long-vanna magnets at RTY 2799-2811.
CHARM
UP · 55
Charm/gamma ratio 9.38 - time decay is the dominant force today Thursday 0DTE. Rising charm trend = growing call delta preservation = upward drift bias. EOD pin gravity toward RTY 2795.
COLOR
DOWN · 70
Deeply negative Color - gamma decays rapidly through RTH. EOD gamma collapse is structural; afternoon dominated by charm and pin mechanics rather than raw gamma.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greekscolor
LATENT
-6595.690
—
speed
LATENT
0.259
—
vomma
LATENT
-4730.000
—
zomma
LATENT
-189.900
—
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureRegime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IV33.0%
IV Percentile37
Skew Pctile20
Skew ShapeNORMAL
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedZomma Armed
Vvix Above100
Short Vanna Regime
Positive Gex Dampens
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
28
Tension Index
Accuracy Log
Outcomes · last 18 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | RTY | HVL@ 2796.00 | LONG_ABOVE | HIT | RTY opened 2777.00, printed a 30-minute close of 2791.90, then reclaimed and held above 2796. Session high reached 2809.30 and close finished 2807.60, confirming the upside pivot break. |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2782.00 | Fade at post-pin continuation target | MISSED | Price never reached 2782 — pinned tight at 2773 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2752.00 | Bear trigger — clean break = cascade | HELD | Session low was 2762 — never tested 2752 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2775.00 | OPEX PIN — consolidate at IWM 275 into 4PM close | HIT | Closed RTY 2773.5. OPEX pin held perfectly. |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2756.00 | First target on 2736 long | HIT | Target hit cleanly ~12:30 ET |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2764.00 | ATH amplifier gate — sustained break = acceleration | REJECTED | Tagged 2761.5 (ATH) but failed to sustain above 2764 flip |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2736.00 | Bull gate: 2736 IB accept = long trigger | HIT | Accepted 2736 on 15-min bar, ran to 2756 by noon |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | HVL@ 2679.00 | Gamma flip gate — hold = bull regime | HELD | Never tested — session stayed above 2705 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | VANNA MAGNET@ 2722.00 | Vol compression pulls to vanna magnet | HIT | RTY tagged 2722.5 within first 45 min of RTH |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2737.00 | Dominant call wall — fade at | REJECTED | Tested 2736.5, rejected twice; closed 2725 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2732.00 | Regime flip on reclaim | MISSED | Rejected twice then price broke lower — flip never reclaimed |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2710.00 | Absorption — put wall defends | ABSORBED | Intraday -$159K flipped to +$147K, held on two tests |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2725.00 | Fade at 2725 — vanna-sandwich lid | REJECTED | Rejected 2724.8 high, closed 2716 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2672.00 | Gamma peak gravity center — buy on test | PENDING | Price never reached — held above 2687 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | HVL@ 2687.00 | HVL support — buy on test | HELD | Held intraday; 2687 was low of the day before bounce |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2702.00 | Fade at dominant call wall | REJECTED | Rejected 2703.5 high multiple times; RTY consolidated 2685–2700 all day |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2564.50 | Bull thesis invalidation | HELD | Never traded near this level; tariff rally ensued |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | HVL@ 2641.50 | 5-min hold = long trigger to VPOC 2663 | PENDING | — |
Total Logged18
Scored16
Hit Rate81%
Best Level TypeHVL 100%
Archive
Recent editions2026-05-04 · ES
ES at 7255 is pulling back from HOD 7271 (was 6pts from HVL 7277) on European close. Gamma peak at ES 7257 (3x build) provides strong PM pin pressure. Structural binary ES 7249 remains key: above = pin toward 7257-7264 with vanna magnets pulling up; below = anti-magnet cascade (7242→7228) to secondary support 7227 and migrated-down dominant put floor ES 7202 (was 7227 — floor weakened). Call wall at 7277 has STRENGTHENED (+$15.46M). 2DTE +$21.76M structural backstop unchanged. Vanna inverted to bullish configuration (magnets now above spot, anti-magnets below).
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED
NEUTRALNEGATIVE—
2026-05-04 · NQ
NQ pulled back sharply from HOD 27940 (within 18 NQ pts of HVL 27958) on European close. Gamma peak has MIGRATED DOWN from 27908 → 27842, creating a new gravitational anchor. Current spot 27863 is 21 NQ pts above the gamma peak. Dominant PM scenario: gravity pull toward gamma peak 27842 and settlement 27840-27880 (6.7x gamma build = strong pin). BEAR RISK: gamma peak 27842 fails → anti-magnet at NQ 27815 (NDX 27697, -18,247) cascades → put wall 27818 → structural floor 27787. EXTREME BEAR: charm 2.16:1 downward pulls toward VOL TRIGGER 27538 = CHARM MAX DECAY ZONE (NDX 27420). Vanna VHI at session minimum (-16,082) amplifies any vol event.
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED NQ OUTPERFORMED
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-04 · RTY
RTY is in razor-thin positive gamma (+$333K, 69% thinner than pre-market) sitting on the vanna anti-magnet/magnet corridor at RTY 2811. Session binary is now RTY 2809 (gamma flip, updated from pre-market 2795): above = magnet staircase to 2820-2832; below = negative gamma air pocket to dominant put wall RTY 2797. ES binary (7252) resolution is the directional catalyst. FALLING charm means the morning window is cleaner than the afternoon.
OPEN AUCTION · ATH TEST WITH NEGATIVE CVD DIVERGENCE
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · ES
Gate 2 triggered via constructive GEX expansion, not deterioration. ES is rotating inside a stronger positive-gamma cage: hold ES 7275 (SPX 7245) and then ES 7230 (SPX 7200) for continued pin/upper-balance behavior toward ES 7280 and ES 7310. Lose ES 7230 and the repair path opens toward ES 7209.44 and ES 7202.94.
IN SESSION RANGE PIN · BALANCE EXPANSION TO ATH
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · RTY
Gate 2 supersedes the pre-market ATH-continuation bias into an upper-balance pin: RTY must accept above RTY 2807-2808 to reactivate the bull path; below RTY 2797 the auction repairs toward RTY 2792 and RTY 2782.
IN SESSION UPPER BALANCE PIN · FAILED BREAKDOWN THEN FULL BALANCE TRAVERSE
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · NQ
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE · BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATH
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · ES
Gate 2 triggered (0DTE GEX +273%): morning bear thesis invalidated. ES accepted above the former call wall (ES 7180 / SPX 7150) post-GDP. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above HVL (ES 7175 / SPX 7145) targets 1DTE call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200), then squeeze extension (ES 7270 / SPX 7240). Failure below ES 7175 (HVL) → gamma crossover risk toward gamma flip ES 7155 and put wall ES 7130.
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · NQ
Gate 3 triggered (vanna sign flip SHORT→LONG): morning bear cascade thesis invalidated. NQ accepted above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) post-GDP. Vanna stabilizing = NQ no longer leads cascade. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) targets 1DTE call wall (NQ 27630 / NDX 27500), then 6DTE call wall (NQ 27830 / NDX 27700). Failure below NQ 27290 (HVL) reinstates bear path toward gamma flip (NQ 27173) then put wall (NQ 27130).
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · RTY
PRE-MARKET STRUCTURE INTACT (no gate triggered) — bear prior persists as RTY remains below VAL (2786), below new HVL (2774), and below dominant call wall (2769). Morning unfinished auction at RTY 2753 is being tested LIVE. Post-GDP resolved catalyst, VIX suppression, rising charm drift, and vanna magnets above shift Scenario B probability to 45%. Tape judgment at RTY 2753 governs whether the bear structural prior is replaced.
IN SESSION AUCTION TEST · B SHAPE SERIES
BEARISH_LEANPOSITIVE—