Edition · Monday, April 27, 2026·Archived · 6d ago · historical·28 Apr 2026 18:00 UTC
RTYPOSITIVE
Spot2786.34Futures2795.00Basis+10.00SessionRTH_INTRADAY_RESCAN_3_PM
Dealer Regime
POSITIVE - Recovered. Peak gamma at RTY 2795 (RUT 2785). GEX flip ~RTY 2795-2800.
NetGEX $273.8KRisk MODERATE
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Conf 65%Day NEUTRAL
Desk Thesis · 2026-04-27
RTY at peak gamma and gamma flip line (RTY 2795-2800 band). Long vanna RECOVERED (VHI +5,971 RISING) pulls toward RTY 2801 (+15,195 vanna). Short vanna repulsion AT current price (RTY 2795 = -7,536). Charm path DOWNWARD (below-spot: 11.8B > above: 7.6B). IWM still negative (-$598K). Gates met (RUT vanna flip + NDX GEX +52%). Primary scenario: IB range pin RTY 2793-2801. Key: does long vanna win and push to 2801, or does charm path + short vanna repulsion drift toward 2790?
RTY 2793-2801 range pin primary. Long vanna at 2801 (+15,195) vs short vanna repulsion at 2795 (-7,536) and 2790 (-10,826). Charm DOWNWARD. IWM -$598K. Hold 2790: range intact. Lose 2790: negative gamma amplification toward 2780-2778 VAL.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 2786.34RTY
RUT
Level
Action · Distance
RTY2856.00
RUT2845.00
CALL WALLExtended Call Wall +$48.6K (RTY 2856 / RUT 2845)
FADE_AT+2.11% · conf 3
RTY2835.00
RUT2825.00
DOMINANT ANCHORCharm Max Growth Zone RTY 2835 / RUT 2825 - delta building
WATCH+1.39% · conf 3
RTY2821.00
RUT2811.00
CALL WALLCall Wall (RTY 2821 / RUT 2811)
FADE_AT+0.93% · conf 4
RTY2810.00
RUT2800.00
CALL WALLCall Wall +$91K (RTY 2810 / RUT 2800)
FADE_AT+0.49% · conf 5
RTY2801.00
RUT2791.00
VANNA MAGNETLong Vanna +15,195 STABILIZING - Primary Upside Target (RTY 2801 / RUT 2791)
FADE_AT+0.17% · conf 5
RTY2798.00
RUT2788.00
VANNA MAGNETLong Vanna +5,479 (RTY 2798 / RUT 2788)
BUY_ON_HOLD+0.06% · conf 3
RTY2795.00
RUT2785.00
NEG GEX TRIGGERGAMMA FLIP / Short Vanna -7,536 / CURRENT (RTY 2795 / RUT 2785)
WATCH+0.00% · conf 6
RTY2791.00
RUT2781.00
DOMINANT ANCHORPositive GEX Buffer +$242K (RTY 2791 / RUT 2781)
BUY_ON_HOLD-0.15% · conf 3
RTY2790.00
RUT2780.00
VANNA ANTIMAGNETShort Vanna -10,826 BREAKDOWN TRIGGER (RTY 2790 / RUT 2780)
WATCH-0.18% · conf 5
SPOT
RTY2795.00
RUT2786.34
Range 2752.00–2822.00
RTY2786.00
RUT2776.00
NEG GEX TRIGGERIWM Neg GEX Cluster Region (RTY 2786 / RUT 2776)
WATCH-0.37% · conf 3
RTY2778.00
RUT2768.00
HVL FLOORVAL / Support Floor (RTY 2778 / RUT 2768)
BUY_ON_HOLD-0.66% · conf 4
RTY2761.00
RUT2751.00
HVL FLOORHVL / Neg GEX -$27K (RTY 2761 / RUT 2751)
WATCH-1.26% · conf 4
Level Reaction
Intraday tape · RTY · 2026-04-27Loading session tape…
Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionGAMMA
COMPRESSION · 55
RUT netGex +$273.8K (+140% from $114K midday). IWM -$598K still negative (less). Peak gamma at RUT 2785 = RTY 2795 (current). Gamma flip zone RTY 2795-2800. 84% gamma within 2% of spot. Total gamma 2,085 (peak 2,197 at 16:30 UTC).
VANNA
UP · 55
LONG STABILIZING - RECOVERED (was negative at midday). VHI +5,971 RISING. Pull-up magnets RTY 2801 (+15,195), RTY 2798 (+5,479). Short vanna below: RTY 2795 (-7,536), RTY 2790 (-10,826). IWM Color -1,408 (negative = IWM amplifier losing power into close).
CHARM
DOWN · 45
Ratio 5.48, trend FALLING. PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE: DOWNWARD (below-spot: 11.8B > above: 7.6B). maxGrowthZone RUT 2825 = RTY 2835. maxDecayZone RUT 2710 = RTY 2720. Net charm NEGATIVE = downward hedging pressure into close.
VOMMA
DOWN · 30
Portfolio Vomma -273 (negative index brake). IWM Vomma +12,037 (positive - vol expansion adds IWM gamma = double-edged, armed for big move either direction). Net: vol-responsive system.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greekscolor
LATENT
269.780
POSITIVE - gamma building with time at index level. But IWM Color -1,408 (negative) = ETF amplifier fading. Net: index stabilizing, ETF losing power.
speed
LATENT
-0.202
Negative - gamma decreases as price rises. Downside near neg-GEX nodes faces amplification.
vomma
LATENT
-273.450
Negative index brake. IWM Vomma +12,037 - vol expansion hot for IWM. Divergence.
zomma
LATENT
18.880
Positive at index (+18.88). IWM Zomma +1,005 - vol expansion destabilizes IWM. Not formally armed but elevated.
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureRegime Quadrant
Cautious Stability - Q4 (46.6%ile IV, 15.5%ile skew)
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile47
Skew Pctile16
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedZomma Armed
Vvix Above100
Short Vanna Regime
Zomma Precursor Met
Positive Gex Dampens
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
22
Tension Index
Accuracy Log
Outcomes · last 18 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | RTY | HVL@ 2796.00 | LONG_ABOVE | HIT | RTY opened 2777.00, printed a 30-minute close of 2791.90, then reclaimed and held above 2796. Session high reached 2809.30 and close finished 2807.60, confirming the upside pivot break. |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2782.00 | Fade at post-pin continuation target | MISSED | Price never reached 2782 — pinned tight at 2773 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2752.00 | Bear trigger — clean break = cascade | HELD | Session low was 2762 — never tested 2752 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2775.00 | OPEX PIN — consolidate at IWM 275 into 4PM close | HIT | Closed RTY 2773.5. OPEX pin held perfectly. |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2756.00 | First target on 2736 long | HIT | Target hit cleanly ~12:30 ET |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2764.00 | ATH amplifier gate — sustained break = acceleration | REJECTED | Tagged 2761.5 (ATH) but failed to sustain above 2764 flip |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2736.00 | Bull gate: 2736 IB accept = long trigger | HIT | Accepted 2736 on 15-min bar, ran to 2756 by noon |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | HVL@ 2679.00 | Gamma flip gate — hold = bull regime | HELD | Never tested — session stayed above 2705 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | VANNA MAGNET@ 2722.00 | Vol compression pulls to vanna magnet | HIT | RTY tagged 2722.5 within first 45 min of RTH |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2737.00 | Dominant call wall — fade at | REJECTED | Tested 2736.5, rejected twice; closed 2725 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2732.00 | Regime flip on reclaim | MISSED | Rejected twice then price broke lower — flip never reclaimed |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2710.00 | Absorption — put wall defends | ABSORBED | Intraday -$159K flipped to +$147K, held on two tests |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2725.00 | Fade at 2725 — vanna-sandwich lid | REJECTED | Rejected 2724.8 high, closed 2716 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2672.00 | Gamma peak gravity center — buy on test | PENDING | Price never reached — held above 2687 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | HVL@ 2687.00 | HVL support — buy on test | HELD | Held intraday; 2687 was low of the day before bounce |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2702.00 | Fade at dominant call wall | REJECTED | Rejected 2703.5 high multiple times; RTY consolidated 2685–2700 all day |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2564.50 | Bull thesis invalidation | HELD | Never traded near this level; tariff rally ensued |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | HVL@ 2641.50 | 5-min hold = long trigger to VPOC 2663 | PENDING | — |
Total Logged18
Scored16
Hit Rate81%
Best Level TypeHVL 100%
Archive
Recent editions2026-05-04 · ES
ES at 7255 is pulling back from HOD 7271 (was 6pts from HVL 7277) on European close. Gamma peak at ES 7257 (3x build) provides strong PM pin pressure. Structural binary ES 7249 remains key: above = pin toward 7257-7264 with vanna magnets pulling up; below = anti-magnet cascade (7242→7228) to secondary support 7227 and migrated-down dominant put floor ES 7202 (was 7227 — floor weakened). Call wall at 7277 has STRENGTHENED (+$15.46M). 2DTE +$21.76M structural backstop unchanged. Vanna inverted to bullish configuration (magnets now above spot, anti-magnets below).
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED
NEUTRALNEGATIVE—
2026-05-04 · NQ
NQ pulled back sharply from HOD 27940 (within 18 NQ pts of HVL 27958) on European close. Gamma peak has MIGRATED DOWN from 27908 → 27842, creating a new gravitational anchor. Current spot 27863 is 21 NQ pts above the gamma peak. Dominant PM scenario: gravity pull toward gamma peak 27842 and settlement 27840-27880 (6.7x gamma build = strong pin). BEAR RISK: gamma peak 27842 fails → anti-magnet at NQ 27815 (NDX 27697, -18,247) cascades → put wall 27818 → structural floor 27787. EXTREME BEAR: charm 2.16:1 downward pulls toward VOL TRIGGER 27538 = CHARM MAX DECAY ZONE (NDX 27420). Vanna VHI at session minimum (-16,082) amplifies any vol event.
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED NQ OUTPERFORMED
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-04 · RTY
RTY is in razor-thin positive gamma (+$333K, 69% thinner than pre-market) sitting on the vanna anti-magnet/magnet corridor at RTY 2811. Session binary is now RTY 2809 (gamma flip, updated from pre-market 2795): above = magnet staircase to 2820-2832; below = negative gamma air pocket to dominant put wall RTY 2797. ES binary (7252) resolution is the directional catalyst. FALLING charm means the morning window is cleaner than the afternoon.
OPEN AUCTION · ATH TEST WITH NEGATIVE CVD DIVERGENCE
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · ES
Gate 2 triggered via constructive GEX expansion, not deterioration. ES is rotating inside a stronger positive-gamma cage: hold ES 7275 (SPX 7245) and then ES 7230 (SPX 7200) for continued pin/upper-balance behavior toward ES 7280 and ES 7310. Lose ES 7230 and the repair path opens toward ES 7209.44 and ES 7202.94.
IN SESSION RANGE PIN · BALANCE EXPANSION TO ATH
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · RTY
Gate 2 supersedes the pre-market ATH-continuation bias into an upper-balance pin: RTY must accept above RTY 2807-2808 to reactivate the bull path; below RTY 2797 the auction repairs toward RTY 2792 and RTY 2782.
IN SESSION UPPER BALANCE PIN · FAILED BREAKDOWN THEN FULL BALANCE TRAVERSE
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · NQ
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE · BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATH
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · ES
Gate 2 triggered (0DTE GEX +273%): morning bear thesis invalidated. ES accepted above the former call wall (ES 7180 / SPX 7150) post-GDP. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above HVL (ES 7175 / SPX 7145) targets 1DTE call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200), then squeeze extension (ES 7270 / SPX 7240). Failure below ES 7175 (HVL) → gamma crossover risk toward gamma flip ES 7155 and put wall ES 7130.
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · NQ
Gate 3 triggered (vanna sign flip SHORT→LONG): morning bear cascade thesis invalidated. NQ accepted above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) post-GDP. Vanna stabilizing = NQ no longer leads cascade. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) targets 1DTE call wall (NQ 27630 / NDX 27500), then 6DTE call wall (NQ 27830 / NDX 27700). Failure below NQ 27290 (HVL) reinstates bear path toward gamma flip (NQ 27173) then put wall (NQ 27130).
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · RTY
PRE-MARKET STRUCTURE INTACT (no gate triggered) — bear prior persists as RTY remains below VAL (2786), below new HVL (2774), and below dominant call wall (2769). Morning unfinished auction at RTY 2753 is being tested LIVE. Post-GDP resolved catalyst, VIX suppression, rising charm drift, and vanna magnets above shift Scenario B probability to 45%. Tape judgment at RTY 2753 governs whether the bear structural prior is replaced.
IN SESSION AUCTION TEST · B SHAPE SERIES
BEARISH_LEANPOSITIVE—