Edition · Tuesday, April 28, 2026·Archived · 6d ago · historical·28 Apr 2026 23:59 UTC
ESNEGATIVE
Spot7120.50Futures7150.50Basis+30.00SessionINTRADAY_RESCAN
Dealer Regime
NEGATIVE GAMMA - ES is sitting on the dominant 7150/7155 wall; failed repairs remain sellable unless 7170/7180 accept.
NetGEX -$92.5MRisk ELEVATED
Opening Type
ROTATIONAL BALANCE
Conf 52%Day BALANCE TO TREND DOWNGAP DN
Desk Thesis · 2026-04-28
ES remains negative gamma and SPY confirms the downside regime, but because price is already sitting on the 7150/7155 wall with strong stabilizing vanna and rising charm, the better trade is failed repair or confirmed 7140/7130 break rather than momentum chasing in the middle.
Use failed-reclaim short logic into ES 7160-7180 or confirmed-break logic below ES 7140/7130; avoid pressing downside at the current 7150/7155 wall and avoid chasing fresh downside into ES 7105 / 7075 support.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 7120.50ES
SPX
Level
Action · Distance
ES7230.00
SPX7200.00
CALL WALLPrimary upside call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200)
FADE_AT+1.11% · conf 3 · $5.6M
ES7210.00
SPX7180.00
RECLAIM SHELFPositive-GEX reclaim shelf (ES 7210 / SPX 7180)
WAIT_FOR_HOLD+0.83% · conf 3 · $2.3M
ES7190.00
SPX7160.00
CHARM DECAYFirst overhead pause / repair shelf (ES 7190 / SPX 7160)
FADE_AT+0.55% · conf 2 · $1.7M
ES7180.00
SPX7150.00
PROFILE GATEUpper profile rejection shelf (ES 7180 / SPX 7150)
FADE_AT+0.41% · conf 3 · -$5.0M
ES7170.00
SPX7140.00
PROFILE POCProfile repair magnet / upper balance reference (ES 7170 / SPX 7140)
WATCH+0.27% · conf 2 · -$652.8K
ES7160.00
SPX7130.00
VANNA MAGNETStrongest live vanna pullback magnet (ES 7160 / SPX 7130)
WAIT_FOR_HOLD+0.13% · conf 3 · -$1.2M
ES7155.00
SPX7125.00
DOMINANT ANCHORDominant near-spot negative GEX wall (ES 7155 / SPX 7125)
SHORT_BELOW+0.06% · conf 3 · -$16.5M
ES7150.00
SPX7120.00
LIVE PIVOTLive tape pivot / lower-balance edge (ES 7150 / SPX 7120)
WATCH-0.01% · conf 3 · -$5.2M
ES7140.00
SPX7110.00
NEG GEX TRIGGERPush-away trigger below spot (ES 7140 / SPX 7110)
SHORT_BELOW-0.15% · conf 3 · -$6.2M
ES7130.00
SPX7100.00
VOL TRIGGERStructural breakdown gate (ES 7130 / SPX 7100)
SELL_ON_BREAK-0.29% · conf 3 · -$15.7M
SPOT
ES7150.50
SPX7120.50
Range 7038.00–7258.00
ES7105.00
SPX7075.00
PUT SUPPORTFirst downside objective / pause shelf (ES 7105 / SPX 7075)
TAKE_PARTIAL-0.63% · conf 2 · -$3.9M
ES7075.00
SPX7045.00
CHARM BOUNCEFirst deeper responsive-buy zone (ES 7075 / SPX 7045)
BUY_ON_TEST-1.05% · conf 2 · -$1.3M
Level Reaction
Intraday tape · ES · 2026-04-28Loading session tape…
Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionGAMMA
DOWN · 89
Fresh SPX net GEX -$92.45M with SPY confirming -$22.28M. ES failed repairs remain sellable while price is below 7170/7180.
VANNA
MEAN_REVERSION · 76
SPX vanna is strongly long and still rising. That keeps pulling price back toward the 7150-7160-7170 cluster unless the 7140/7130 breakdown actually confirms.
CHARM
UP · 70
Charm evolution is rising sharply and favors pin/repair back into the local cluster, even though charm_pressure still reads net negative on a broader symmetric basis.
COLOR
COMPRESSION · 56
Chain color is negative while the aggregate helper stayed positive. Use this as a conflict warning, not a clean standalone signal.
VOMMA
DOWN · 41
Fresh chain vomma flipped negative. Vol expansion is now dampening, not amplifying, dealer instability versus the earlier same-day ES scan.
ZOMMA
DOWN · 45
Negative chain zomma means the cascade engine is not cleanly armed even with deeply negative gamma.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greekscolor
LATENT
-34161.384
Chain color is negative while the aggregate helper remained positive; treat this as a conflict warning.
speed
LATENT
-1.511
Negative chain speed means gamma thins as price falls; confirmed breaks still matter, but the slope is not exponential.
vomma
LATENT
-779.374
Negative chain vomma dampens volatility-feedback versus the earlier same-day ES read.
zomma
LATENT
-1422.246
Negative chain zomma argues against a clean one-way cascade despite negative gamma.
ultima
LATENT
10174.620
Aggregate helper only; elevated but secondary to gamma, vanna, and charm.
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureRegime Quadrant
Bullish Exuberance in full IV history, but live chain behaves as high-vol negative gamma intraday
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile89
Skew Pctile62
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
INVERTED EXPIRY SPIKE — BACKWARDATION — stress premium in front
0DTE ATM IV 269.76%
7DTE ATM IV 25.01%
30DTE ATM IV 25.22%
FRONT MID BACK
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedVanna Destabilizing
Zomma Positive Above Threshold
Vix At Or Above Open And Not Falling
Lead Index Trigger Within40 Points
NOT ARMED · 1/3 conditions
40
Tension Index
Accuracy Log
Outcomes · last 1 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | ES | NEG GEX TRIGGER@ 7152.00 | SHORT_BELOW | ABSORBED | Opened 7148.25 below the 7152 trigger and sold to 7121.50, but downside follow-through stalled well above 7102. First 30-minute close was 7156.75 and session closed 7152.00, so bearish impulse fired but was absorbed and reclaimed by end of day. |
Total Logged1
Scored1
Hit Rate0%
Best Level Type—
Archive
Recent editions2026-05-04 · ES
ES at 7255 is pulling back from HOD 7271 (was 6pts from HVL 7277) on European close. Gamma peak at ES 7257 (3x build) provides strong PM pin pressure. Structural binary ES 7249 remains key: above = pin toward 7257-7264 with vanna magnets pulling up; below = anti-magnet cascade (7242→7228) to secondary support 7227 and migrated-down dominant put floor ES 7202 (was 7227 — floor weakened). Call wall at 7277 has STRENGTHENED (+$15.46M). 2DTE +$21.76M structural backstop unchanged. Vanna inverted to bullish configuration (magnets now above spot, anti-magnets below).
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED
NEUTRALNEGATIVE—
2026-05-04 · NQ
NQ pulled back sharply from HOD 27940 (within 18 NQ pts of HVL 27958) on European close. Gamma peak has MIGRATED DOWN from 27908 → 27842, creating a new gravitational anchor. Current spot 27863 is 21 NQ pts above the gamma peak. Dominant PM scenario: gravity pull toward gamma peak 27842 and settlement 27840-27880 (6.7x gamma build = strong pin). BEAR RISK: gamma peak 27842 fails → anti-magnet at NQ 27815 (NDX 27697, -18,247) cascades → put wall 27818 → structural floor 27787. EXTREME BEAR: charm 2.16:1 downward pulls toward VOL TRIGGER 27538 = CHARM MAX DECAY ZONE (NDX 27420). Vanna VHI at session minimum (-16,082) amplifies any vol event.
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED NQ OUTPERFORMED
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-04 · RTY
RTY is in razor-thin positive gamma (+$333K, 69% thinner than pre-market) sitting on the vanna anti-magnet/magnet corridor at RTY 2811. Session binary is now RTY 2809 (gamma flip, updated from pre-market 2795): above = magnet staircase to 2820-2832; below = negative gamma air pocket to dominant put wall RTY 2797. ES binary (7252) resolution is the directional catalyst. FALLING charm means the morning window is cleaner than the afternoon.
OPEN AUCTION · ATH TEST WITH NEGATIVE CVD DIVERGENCE
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · ES
Gate 2 triggered via constructive GEX expansion, not deterioration. ES is rotating inside a stronger positive-gamma cage: hold ES 7275 (SPX 7245) and then ES 7230 (SPX 7200) for continued pin/upper-balance behavior toward ES 7280 and ES 7310. Lose ES 7230 and the repair path opens toward ES 7209.44 and ES 7202.94.
IN SESSION RANGE PIN · BALANCE EXPANSION TO ATH
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · RTY
Gate 2 supersedes the pre-market ATH-continuation bias into an upper-balance pin: RTY must accept above RTY 2807-2808 to reactivate the bull path; below RTY 2797 the auction repairs toward RTY 2792 and RTY 2782.
IN SESSION UPPER BALANCE PIN · FAILED BREAKDOWN THEN FULL BALANCE TRAVERSE
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · NQ
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE · BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATH
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · ES
Gate 2 triggered (0DTE GEX +273%): morning bear thesis invalidated. ES accepted above the former call wall (ES 7180 / SPX 7150) post-GDP. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above HVL (ES 7175 / SPX 7145) targets 1DTE call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200), then squeeze extension (ES 7270 / SPX 7240). Failure below ES 7175 (HVL) → gamma crossover risk toward gamma flip ES 7155 and put wall ES 7130.
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · NQ
Gate 3 triggered (vanna sign flip SHORT→LONG): morning bear cascade thesis invalidated. NQ accepted above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) post-GDP. Vanna stabilizing = NQ no longer leads cascade. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) targets 1DTE call wall (NQ 27630 / NDX 27500), then 6DTE call wall (NQ 27830 / NDX 27700). Failure below NQ 27290 (HVL) reinstates bear path toward gamma flip (NQ 27173) then put wall (NQ 27130).
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · RTY
PRE-MARKET STRUCTURE INTACT (no gate triggered) — bear prior persists as RTY remains below VAL (2786), below new HVL (2774), and below dominant call wall (2769). Morning unfinished auction at RTY 2753 is being tested LIVE. Post-GDP resolved catalyst, VIX suppression, rising charm drift, and vanna magnets above shift Scenario B probability to 45%. Tape judgment at RTY 2753 governs whether the bear structural prior is replaced.
IN SESSION AUCTION TEST · B SHAPE SERIES
BEARISH_LEANPOSITIVE—