Edition · Tuesday, April 28, 2026·Archived · 6d ago · historical·28 Apr 2026 23:59 UTC
RTYNEGATIVE
Spot2754.00Futures2764.00Basis+10.00SessionINTRADAY_RESCAN
Dealer Regime
NEGATIVE GAMMA - b-shape lower-balance is more likely than a fresh cascade while RTY trades between 2760 and 2770.
NetGEX -$799.8KRisk ELEVATED
Opening Type
OPEN REJECTION REVERSE
Conf 56%Day TREND
Desk Thesis · 2026-04-28
The long liquidation already happened. RTY remains negative gamma, but the PM session is no longer a clean momentum short because vanna flipped long/stabilizing and charm is rising into the 7Y note auction. The higher-probability path is lower-balance rotation around 2765-2770 unless RTY loses 2760 and then 2755.
Treat RTY 2760-2770 as the PM auction box. Buy hold above 2760 for mean reversion into 2765/2770, or sell failed 2770/2775 rejections and confirmed 2760 breaks. Avoid pressing the middle into the 7Y auction.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 2754.00RTY
RUT
Level
Action · Distance
RTY2855.00
RUT2845.00
CALL WALLDominant upper tail call wall (RTY 2855 / RUT 2845)
FADE_AT+3.29% · conf 3 · $34.0K
RTY2825.00
RUT2815.00
CHARM GROWTHStrongest positive charm growth above market (RTY 2825 / RUT 2815)
WATCH+2.21% · conf 2 · $3.6K
RTY2810.00
RUT2800.00
CALL WALLUpper recovery shelf / 0-7DTE positive GEX (RTY 2810 / RUT 2800)
FADE_AT+1.66% · conf 2 · $48.1K
RTY2798.00
RUT2788.00
PROFILE VPOCUpper composite VPOC from attached profile (RTY 2798 / RUT 2788)
WATCH+1.23% · conf 2 · $0
RTY2780.00
RUT2770.00
PROFILE GATEProfile gate / upper balance acceptance threshold (RTY 2780 / RUT 2770)
WAIT_FOR_HOLD+0.58% · conf 2 · $9.8K
RTY2775.00
RUT2765.00
NEG GEX TRIGGEROverhead negative-GEX retest zone (RTY 2775 / RUT 2765)
FADE_AT+0.40% · conf 3 · -$184.2K
RTY2770.00
RUT2760.00
DOMINANT ANCHORStrongest long-vanna / positive-GEX reclaim magnet (RTY 2770 / RUT 2760)
WAIT_FOR_HOLD+0.22% · conf 3 · $150.0K
RTY2765.00
RUT2755.00
LIVE PIVOTLive pivot at the vanna border (RTY 2765 / RUT 2755)
WATCH+0.04% · conf 3 · -$342.4K
RTY2760.00
RUT2750.00
PUT FLOORLocal support shelf (RTY 2760 / RUT 2750)
WATCH-0.14% · conf 2 · -$141.7K
RTY2755.00
RUT2745.00
PUT FLOORDominant downside magnet / strongest fresh negative GEX (RTY 2755 / RUT 2745)
BUY_ON_TEST-0.33% · conf 3 · -$442.8K
SPOT
RTY2764.00
RUT2754.00
Range 2685.00–2837.00
RTY2750.00
RUT2740.00
PUT FLOORNext lower support shelf (RTY 2750 / RUT 2740)
TAKE_PARTIAL-0.51% · conf 2 · -$64.3K
RTY2740.00
RUT2730.00
CHARM DECAYStrongest local charm decay / PM flush target (RTY 2740 / RUT 2730)
WATCH-0.87% · conf 2 · -$23.2K
Level Reaction
Intraday tape · RTY · 2026-04-28Loading session tape…
Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionGAMMA
DOWN · 63
Negative gamma remains intact, but its magnitude is not expanding. The fresh downside magnets are RUT 2755 and 2745, while RUT 2760 is the only meaningful positive-GEX stabilizer above spot.
VANNA
MEAN_REVERSION · 61
The material PM change is the vanna flip: RUT moved from short/destabilizing to long/stabilizing, with strongest magnets at 2755-2761. Above RTY 2765, mean reversion toward RTY 2770/2775 becomes more likely.
CHARM
UP · 58
Charm evolution is rising and increasingly positive into the afternoon, supporting drift back toward the 2765-2770 zone. Stale charm_pressure remains net negative but balanced, so charm is a PM support, not a full bullish reversal signal.
COLOR
COMPRESSION · 44
Gamma is decaying with time, which supports a lower-balance afternoon instead of a fresh acceleration leg.
VOMMA
MIXED · 36
Chain vomma is mildly positive while the aggregate helper is negative; volatility shocks can still matter around the auction, but this is not a pure blowout setup.
ZOMMA
DOWN · 39
Negative chain zomma keeps the LBF/cascade engine inactive.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greekscolor
LATENT
-1705.939
Gamma is fading with time, favoring a more rotational PM session.
speed
LATENT
-0.214
Gamma thins as price falls, limiting reflexive downside feedback.
vomma
LATENT
196.243
Auction volatility can still matter, but not in a pure volatility spiral.
zomma
LATENT
-86.424
Vol changes reduce gamma; the cascade engine is not cleanly armed.
ultima
LATENT
18912.797
Aggregate helper only; elevated but secondary to gamma, vanna, and charm.
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureRegime Quadrant
Bullish Exuberance in full IV history, but live PM behavior is better read as elevated-vol negative gamma with lower-balance repair potential
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile84
Skew Pctile85
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
INVERTED EXPIRY SPIKE — BACKWARDATION — stress premium in front
0DTE ATM IV 224.17%
7DTE ATM IV 37.56%
FRONT MID BACK
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedVanna Destabilizing
Zomma Positive Above Threshold
Vix At Or Above Open And Not Falling
Lead Index Trigger Within40 Points
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
28
Tension Index
Accuracy Log
Outcomes · last 18 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | RTY | HVL@ 2796.00 | LONG_ABOVE | HIT | RTY opened 2777.00, printed a 30-minute close of 2791.90, then reclaimed and held above 2796. Session high reached 2809.30 and close finished 2807.60, confirming the upside pivot break. |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2782.00 | Fade at post-pin continuation target | MISSED | Price never reached 2782 — pinned tight at 2773 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2752.00 | Bear trigger — clean break = cascade | HELD | Session low was 2762 — never tested 2752 |
| 2026-04-17 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2775.00 | OPEX PIN — consolidate at IWM 275 into 4PM close | HIT | Closed RTY 2773.5. OPEX pin held perfectly. |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2756.00 | First target on 2736 long | HIT | Target hit cleanly ~12:30 ET |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2764.00 | ATH amplifier gate — sustained break = acceleration | REJECTED | Tagged 2761.5 (ATH) but failed to sustain above 2764 flip |
| 2026-04-16 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2736.00 | Bull gate: 2736 IB accept = long trigger | HIT | Accepted 2736 on 15-min bar, ran to 2756 by noon |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | HVL@ 2679.00 | Gamma flip gate — hold = bull regime | HELD | Never tested — session stayed above 2705 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | VANNA MAGNET@ 2722.00 | Vol compression pulls to vanna magnet | HIT | RTY tagged 2722.5 within first 45 min of RTH |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2737.00 | Dominant call wall — fade at | REJECTED | Tested 2736.5, rejected twice; closed 2725 |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2732.00 | Regime flip on reclaim | MISSED | Rejected twice then price broke lower — flip never reclaimed |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | PUT FLOOR@ 2710.00 | Absorption — put wall defends | ABSORBED | Intraday -$159K flipped to +$147K, held on two tests |
| 2026-04-15 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2725.00 | Fade at 2725 — vanna-sandwich lid | REJECTED | Rejected 2724.8 high, closed 2716 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 2672.00 | Gamma peak gravity center — buy on test | PENDING | Price never reached — held above 2687 |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | HVL@ 2687.00 | HVL support — buy on test | HELD | Held intraday; 2687 was low of the day before bounce |
| 2026-04-14 | RTY | CALL WALL@ 2702.00 | Fade at dominant call wall | REJECTED | Rejected 2703.5 high multiple times; RTY consolidated 2685–2700 all day |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | GAMMA FLIP@ 2564.50 | Bull thesis invalidation | HELD | Never traded near this level; tariff rally ensued |
| 2026-04-13 | RTY | HVL@ 2641.50 | 5-min hold = long trigger to VPOC 2663 | PENDING | — |
Total Logged18
Scored16
Hit Rate81%
Best Level TypeHVL 100%
Archive
Recent editions2026-05-04 · ES
ES at 7255 is pulling back from HOD 7271 (was 6pts from HVL 7277) on European close. Gamma peak at ES 7257 (3x build) provides strong PM pin pressure. Structural binary ES 7249 remains key: above = pin toward 7257-7264 with vanna magnets pulling up; below = anti-magnet cascade (7242→7228) to secondary support 7227 and migrated-down dominant put floor ES 7202 (was 7227 — floor weakened). Call wall at 7277 has STRENGTHENED (+$15.46M). 2DTE +$21.76M structural backstop unchanged. Vanna inverted to bullish configuration (magnets now above spot, anti-magnets below).
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED
NEUTRALNEGATIVE—
2026-05-04 · NQ
NQ pulled back sharply from HOD 27940 (within 18 NQ pts of HVL 27958) on European close. Gamma peak has MIGRATED DOWN from 27908 → 27842, creating a new gravitational anchor. Current spot 27863 is 21 NQ pts above the gamma peak. Dominant PM scenario: gravity pull toward gamma peak 27842 and settlement 27840-27880 (6.7x gamma build = strong pin). BEAR RISK: gamma peak 27842 fails → anti-magnet at NQ 27815 (NDX 27697, -18,247) cascades → put wall 27818 → structural floor 27787. EXTREME BEAR: charm 2.16:1 downward pulls toward VOL TRIGGER 27538 = CHARM MAX DECAY ZONE (NDX 27420). Vanna VHI at session minimum (-16,082) amplifies any vol event.
IN SESSION EU CLOSE PULLBACK · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED NQ OUTPERFORMED
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-04 · RTY
RTY is in razor-thin positive gamma (+$333K, 69% thinner than pre-market) sitting on the vanna anti-magnet/magnet corridor at RTY 2811. Session binary is now RTY 2809 (gamma flip, updated from pre-market 2795): above = magnet staircase to 2820-2832; below = negative gamma air pocket to dominant put wall RTY 2797. ES binary (7252) resolution is the directional catalyst. FALLING charm means the morning window is cleaner than the afternoon.
OPEN AUCTION · ATH TEST WITH NEGATIVE CVD DIVERGENCE
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · ES
Gate 2 triggered via constructive GEX expansion, not deterioration. ES is rotating inside a stronger positive-gamma cage: hold ES 7275 (SPX 7245) and then ES 7230 (SPX 7200) for continued pin/upper-balance behavior toward ES 7280 and ES 7310. Lose ES 7230 and the repair path opens toward ES 7209.44 and ES 7202.94.
IN SESSION RANGE PIN · BALANCE EXPANSION TO ATH
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · RTY
Gate 2 supersedes the pre-market ATH-continuation bias into an upper-balance pin: RTY must accept above RTY 2807-2808 to reactivate the bull path; below RTY 2797 the auction repairs toward RTY 2792 and RTY 2782.
IN SESSION UPPER BALANCE PIN · FAILED BREAKDOWN THEN FULL BALANCE TRAVERSE
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · NQ
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE · BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATH
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · ES
Gate 2 triggered (0DTE GEX +273%): morning bear thesis invalidated. ES accepted above the former call wall (ES 7180 / SPX 7150) post-GDP. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above HVL (ES 7175 / SPX 7145) targets 1DTE call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200), then squeeze extension (ES 7270 / SPX 7240). Failure below ES 7175 (HVL) → gamma crossover risk toward gamma flip ES 7155 and put wall ES 7130.
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · NQ
Gate 3 triggered (vanna sign flip SHORT→LONG): morning bear cascade thesis invalidated. NQ accepted above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) post-GDP. Vanna stabilizing = NQ no longer leads cascade. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) targets 1DTE call wall (NQ 27630 / NDX 27500), then 6DTE call wall (NQ 27830 / NDX 27700). Failure below NQ 27290 (HVL) reinstates bear path toward gamma flip (NQ 27173) then put wall (NQ 27130).
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · RTY
PRE-MARKET STRUCTURE INTACT (no gate triggered) — bear prior persists as RTY remains below VAL (2786), below new HVL (2774), and below dominant call wall (2769). Morning unfinished auction at RTY 2753 is being tested LIVE. Post-GDP resolved catalyst, VIX suppression, rising charm drift, and vanna magnets above shift Scenario B probability to 45%. Tape judgment at RTY 2753 governs whether the bear structural prior is replaced.
IN SESSION AUCTION TEST · B SHAPE SERIES
BEARISH_LEANPOSITIVE—