Edition · Friday, May 1, 2026·Archived · 3d ago · historical·01 May 2026 09:30 UTC
NQPOSITIVE
Spot27459.00Futures27587.00Basis+128.00SessionPRE_MARKET
Dealer Regime
Upper-balance/ATH retest in positive gamma with Q1 Bullish Exuberance IV. Momentum favors bulls above the NQ 27583-27603 opening shelf, but failed breakout risk rises quickly below the NQ 27539-27511 short-vanna handoff.
NetGEX $11.2MRisk LOW
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE
Conf 58%Day BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATHAT RANGE HIGH NEAR ATH
Desk Thesis · 2026-05-01
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
Trade NQ as extended imbalance continuation while price holds NQ 27583-27603 and can reclaim NQ 27628. Above NQ 27628, the likely path is ATH NQ 27675, then NQ 27731 and 27758. If NQ loses 27539 and especially 27511, stop treating pullbacks as continuation and shift to failed-breakout repair toward NQ 27429 and 27328. VIX above 18.0 confirms the repair path; VIX above 19.0 invalidates dip-buy mechanics.
Level Map
Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 27459.00NQ
NDX
Level
Action · Distance
NQ28128.00
NDX28000.00
CALL WALL7DTE call wall / weekly extension boundary NQ 28128 (NDX 28000)
WATCH+1.96% · conf 2
NQ27858.00
NDX27730.00
GEX MAGNETCharm growth shelf / upside extension reference NQ 27858 (NDX 27730)
WATCH+0.98% · conf 1
NQ27758.00
NDX27630.00
GEX MAGNET3DTE HVL / upper gamma shelf NQ 27758 (NDX 27630)
WATCH+0.62% · conf 1
NQ27731.50
NDX27603.50
VANNA MAGNETUpper long-vanna magnet / post-ATH continuation target NQ 27731.5 (NDX 27603.5)
WATCH+0.52% · conf 2
NQ27676.40
NDX27548.40
VANNA MAGNETATH-adjacent long-vanna magnet NQ 27676.4 (NDX 27548.4)
WATCH+0.32% · conf 3
NQ27675.00
NDX27547.00
DOMINANT ANCHORATH retest / breakout reference NQ 27675 (NDX 27547)
WATCH+0.32% · conf 3
NQ27648.90
NDX27520.90
VANNA MAGNETSecondary long-vanna magnet NQ 27648.9 (NDX 27520.9)
WATCH+0.22% · conf 2
NQ27628.00
NDX27500.00
CALL WALL0DTE call wall + HVL and 3DTE call wall convergence NQ 27628 (NDX 27500)
WATCH+0.15% · conf 4
NQ27621.40
NDX27493.40
GEX MAGNETPeak GEX + primary long-vanna magnet NQ 27621.4 (NDX 27493.4)
WATCH+0.13% · conf 4
NQ27603.00
NDX27475.00
DOMINANT ANCHORUpper opening shelf / bull acceptance gate NQ 27603 (NDX 27475)
WATCH+0.06% · conf 3
NQ27583.50
NDX27455.50
DOMINANT ANCHOROpening pivot / upper profile acceptance shelf NQ 27583.5 (NDX 27455.5)
WATCH-0.01% · conf 3
NQ27538.80
NDX27410.80
VANNA ANTI MAGNETPrimary short-vanna handoff / failed-breakout warning NQ 27538.8 (NDX 27410.8)
WATCH-0.17% · conf 2
NQ27511.30
NDX27383.30
VANNA ANTI MAGNETSecondary short-vanna trigger / thesis invalidation shelf NQ 27511.3 (NDX 27383.3)
WATCH-0.27% · conf 3
NQ27483.80
NDX27355.80
VANNA ANTI MAGNETTertiary short-vanna repair node NQ 27483.8 (NDX 27355.8)
WATCH-0.37% · conf 1
SPOT
NQ27587.00
NDX27459.00
Range 27009.00–28151.00
NQ27428.80
NDX27300.80
VANNA ANTI MAGNETLower short-vanna repair node / downside target NQ 27428.8 (NDX 27300.8)
WATCH-0.57% · conf 2
NQ27378.00
NDX27250.00
GEX MAGNETCharm max-decay zone / repair magnet NQ 27378 (NDX 27250)
WATCH-0.76% · conf 1
NQ27328.00
NDX27200.00
PUT SUPPORT0DTE put wall / failed-breakout repair target NQ 27328 (NDX 27200)
WATCH-0.94% · conf 3
NQ27228.00
NDX27100.00
PUT SUPPORT3DTE put wall / deeper balance repair NQ 27228 (NDX 27100)
WATCH-1.30% · conf 2
NQ25970.00
NDX25842.00
VOL TRIGGER0DTE vol trigger / regime break NQ 25970 (NDX 25842)
WATCH-5.86% · conf 1
Level Reaction
Intraday tape · NQ · 2026-05-01Loading session tape…
Greek Pressure
Dealer directional forces · next sessionSPEED
DOWN · 35
Chain speed is slightly negative, so failed upside acceptance can soften gamma support quickly below the opening shelf.
COLOR
UP · 85
Positive color supports stronger gamma behavior into the close and helps continuation if the open holds above the decision shelf.
VOMMA
DOWN · 65
Negative vomma keeps vol expansion from becoming the base case while VIX remains under 17.5-18.0.
ZOMMA
UP · 45
Vol-up would add some gamma, but the reading is not the primary driver today.
VANNA
UP · 75
Long-vanna stabilizing regime. Primary magnets cluster at NDX 27493, 27521, 27548, and 27603 / NQ 27621, 27649, 27676, and 27731.
CHARM
UP · 95
Charm/gamma ratio is extreme and rising. Time decay is the dominant intraday force; above the opening shelf it favors drift/pin higher, below it favors fast repair to the lower charm shelf.
Higher-Order
Second + third-order greekscolor
LATENT
251.814
Positive color supports stronger gamma behavior into the close and helps continuation if the open holds above the decision shelf.
speed
LATENT
-0.004
Chain speed is slightly negative, so failed upside acceptance can soften gamma support quickly below the opening shelf.
vomma
LATENT
-107.150
Negative vomma keeps vol expansion from becoming the base case while VIX remains under 17.5-18.0.
zomma
LATENT
4.610
Vol-up would add some gamma, but the reading is not the primary driver today.
IV Intelligence
Quadrant · skew · term structureRegime Quadrant
Q1 Bullish Exuberance
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile90
Skew Pctile82
Skew ShapeNORMAL
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).
LBF Status
Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armedGamma Negative
Charm Amplifying
Put Wall Breached
Vanna Destabilizing
NOT ARMED · 1/3 conditions
0
Tension Index
Accuracy Log
Outcomes · last 2 levels scored| Date | Symbol | Level | Predicted | Outcome | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | NQ | DOMINANT ANCHOR@ 26831.00 | FADE_AT | HELD | High print was 26827.00, four points shy of the 26831 anchor. The ceiling held and the contract closed back below at 26774.50. |
| 2026-04-20 | NQ | PUT FLOOR@ 26689.00 | BUY_ON_TEST | ABSORBED | NQ broke below first support to 26593.75, but the move did not extend to 26499 structural support. The contract recovered and closed 26774.50, so the downside strike occurred but was ultimately absorbed. |
Total Logged2
Scored2
Hit Rate50%
Best Level Type—
Archive
Recent editions2026-05-04 · ES
ES at 7253 sits on the gamma peak (pinned) and in the anti-magnet zone (ES 7254, -228K vanna repulsion) — explains morning chop. Session binary is now ES 7249 (BS gamma flip HIGH conf): above = anti-magnet zone → vanna magnets at ES 7268 (primary +388K) and 7275 (secondary +363K) → HVL 7277. Below = negative gamma amplification through anti-magnet cascade (7246→7239→7232) to new dominant put wall ES 7227 (-$12.71M). Floor has RISEN 25pts vs pre-market. 2DTE +$22.75M structurally unchanged — forward bias remains bullish.
OPEN AUCTION · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED
NEUTRALNEGATIVE—
2026-05-04 · NQ
NQ cleared the pre-market anchor (27818) and the pre-market first vanna magnet (27870) in the RTH open. Currently in anti-magnet sandwich: SESSION BINARY NQ 27852 (lower anti-magnet -9,686) must hold for bull case. Bull path: clear 27880 (upper anti-magnet) → gamma peak/vanna magnet 27908 → magnet staircase 27935 → 27963 → HVL 27968 (now only 97 NQ pts away, vs 247 pts at pre-market). Bear path: break 27852 → repulsion to 27824 → put wall 27818 → pre-market floor 27787. Vanna VHI at session minimum = amplitude risk on any breakdown. HVL migrated 150 pts closer = significantly more achievable bull target.
OPEN AUCTION · IRAN SHOCK GLOBEX RECOVERED NQ OUTPERFORMED
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-04 · RTY
RTY is in razor-thin positive gamma (+$333K, 69% thinner than pre-market) sitting on the vanna anti-magnet/magnet corridor at RTY 2811. Session binary is now RTY 2809 (gamma flip, updated from pre-market 2795): above = magnet staircase to 2820-2832; below = negative gamma air pocket to dominant put wall RTY 2797. ES binary (7252) resolution is the directional catalyst. FALLING charm means the morning window is cleaner than the afternoon.
OPEN AUCTION · ATH TEST WITH NEGATIVE CVD DIVERGENCE
NEUTRALPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · ES
Gate 2 triggered via constructive GEX expansion, not deterioration. ES is rotating inside a stronger positive-gamma cage: hold ES 7275 (SPX 7245) and then ES 7230 (SPX 7200) for continued pin/upper-balance behavior toward ES 7280 and ES 7310. Lose ES 7230 and the repair path opens toward ES 7209.44 and ES 7202.94.
IN SESSION RANGE PIN · BALANCE EXPANSION TO ATH
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · RTY
Gate 2 supersedes the pre-market ATH-continuation bias into an upper-balance pin: RTY must accept above RTY 2807-2808 to reactivate the bull path; below RTY 2797 the auction repairs toward RTY 2792 and RTY 2782.
IN SESSION UPPER BALANCE PIN · FAILED BREAKDOWN THEN FULL BALANCE TRAVERSE
NEUTRAL_BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-05-01 · NQ
Base case is extended imbalance continuation while NQ holds the 27583-27603 opening shelf and reclaims the 27628 call-wall/HVL; failure below NQ 27539 then 27511 shifts the day from ATH continuation into failed-breakout repair toward 27429 and 27328.
OPEN AUCTION TO DRIVE · BALANCE RETEST AND EXPANSION TO ATH
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · ES
Gate 2 triggered (0DTE GEX +273%): morning bear thesis invalidated. ES accepted above the former call wall (ES 7180 / SPX 7150) post-GDP. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above HVL (ES 7175 / SPX 7145) targets 1DTE call wall (ES 7230 / SPX 7200), then squeeze extension (ES 7270 / SPX 7240). Failure below ES 7175 (HVL) → gamma crossover risk toward gamma flip ES 7155 and put wall ES 7130.
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · NQ
Gate 3 triggered (vanna sign flip SHORT→LONG): morning bear cascade thesis invalidated. NQ accepted above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) post-GDP. Vanna stabilizing = NQ no longer leads cascade. Bullish continuation thesis: hold above former call wall (NQ 27480 / NDX 27350) targets 1DTE call wall (NQ 27630 / NDX 27500), then 6DTE call wall (NQ 27830 / NDX 27700). Failure below NQ 27290 (HVL) reinstates bear path toward gamma flip (NQ 27173) then put wall (NQ 27130).
POST EVENT CONTINUATION · EVENT BINARY GDP
BULLISHPOSITIVE—
2026-04-30 · RTY
PRE-MARKET STRUCTURE INTACT (no gate triggered) — bear prior persists as RTY remains below VAL (2786), below new HVL (2774), and below dominant call wall (2769). Morning unfinished auction at RTY 2753 is being tested LIVE. Post-GDP resolved catalyst, VIX suppression, rising charm drift, and vanna magnets above shift Scenario B probability to 45%. Tape judgment at RTY 2753 governs whether the bear structural prior is replaced.
IN SESSION AUCTION TEST · B SHAPE SERIES
BEARISH_LEANPOSITIVE—