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Edition · Wednesday, August 19, 2026·Archived · 11d ago · historical·19 Aug 2026 12:11 UTC

NQNEGATIVE

Spot29436.00Futures29527.00Basis+91.00SessionPRE_MARKET
Dealer Regime
NEG_GAMMA_LIGHT_BULLISH_VANNA
NetGEX -$142Risk MODERATE
Opening Type
OPEN TEST DRIVE
Conf 55%Day NORMAL
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger2 logged · 2 scored50% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-19

This is the instrument for the upside because the two families now carry opposite vanna geometry: every meaningful antimagnet here sits below spot repelling price upward and every magnet above it attracting, while the S&P has its two largest magnets 33 and 83 points below spot, and this index has additionally reclaimed its value-area low with positive cumulative delta where the S&P has not.

This is the instrument for the upside: every meaningful vanna antimagnet sits below spot and every magnet above it, value-area low has been reclaimed and cumulative delta is positive, so hold 29508 through the settlement print and work 29596 then 29656, with 29491 as the level that kills it.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 29436.00
NQ
NDX
Level
Action · Distance
NQ30087.00
NDX29996.00
CALL WALLOPEX call wall + cluster (NQ 30087 / NDX 29996)
WATCH+1.90% · conf 3
NQ29861.00
NDX29770.00
STRUCTURAL FLOORVega shelf (NQ 29861 / NDX 29770)
WATCH+1.13% · conf 1
NQ29791.00
NDX29700.00
STRUCTURAL FLOORVega shelf (NQ 29791 / NDX 29700)
WATCH+0.90% · conf 1
NQ29765.00
NDX29673.80
VANNA MAGNET0DTE vanna magnet (NQ 29765 / NDX 29673.8)
WATCH+0.81% · conf 2
NQ29715.00
NDX29624.00
CALL WALLVanna magnet + 1DTE/OPEX call wall (NQ 29715 / NDX 29624)
WATCH+0.64% · conf 3
NQ29656.00
NDX29564.90
VANNA MAGNETLargest vanna magnet in the book (NQ 29656 / NDX 29564.9)
WATCH+0.44% · conf 2
NQ29597.00
NDX29505.70
CALL WALLVanna magnet + 0DTE call wall (NQ 29597 / NDX 29505.7)
WATCH+0.24% · conf 3
NQ29552.00
NDX29460.60
DOMINANT ANCHORSTRONG cross-rail cluster (NQ 29552 / NDX 29460.6)
WATCH+0.08% · conf 3
NQ29508.00
NDX29417.10
VANNA ANTIMAGNETVanna antimagnet (NQ 29508 / NDX 29417.1)
WATCH-0.07% · conf 2
NQ29491.00
NDX29400.00
PUT WALLVega node + 0DTE dominant node and put wall (NQ 29491 / NDX 29400)
WATCH-0.12% · conf 3
NQ29478.00
NDX29387.50
VANNA ANTIMAGNETLargest vanna antimagnet (NQ 29478 / NDX 29387.5)
WATCH-0.17% · conf 2
NQ29469.00
NDX29378.40
PUT WALL0DTE put wall (NQ 29469 / NDX 29378.4)
WATCH-0.20% · conf 3
SPOT
NQ29527.00
NDX29436.00
Range 29234.00–29820.00
NQ29272.00
NDX29180.60
VANNA MAGNET1DTE vanna magnet (NQ 29272 / NDX 29180.6)
WATCH-0.87% · conf 2
NQ29191.00
NDX29100.00
PUT WALLOPEX dominant node and put wall (NQ 29191 / NDX 29100)
WATCH-1.14% · conf 3
NQ28853.00
NDX28762.00
PUT FLOOROPEX put wall, the overnight hedge (NQ 28853 / NDX 28762)
WATCH-2.29% · conf 3

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · NQ · 2026-08-19
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
VANNA
UP · 75

The cleanest bullish vanna configuration of the week and the structural asymmetry of the day. Every meaningful antimagnet on the structural-actual rail sits BELOW spot at -20,985 and -18,004, repelling price upward, while every magnet sits ABOVE it at +8,607, +7,390, +5,614 and +4,831, attracting it. This is the exact mirror of the S&P family, where the two largest readings are magnets 33 and 83 points below spot. The one dissent is the ETF 0DTE antimagnet at NQ 29559 reading -9,439, which is the first overhead friction. The fixed-one-minute rail reads plus or minus 51 against the structural-actual rail's plus or minus 20,985, so the structural rail carries this entirely.

CHARM
DOWN · 65

Still negative on every rail here, unlike the S&P family where the raw aggregate rotated positive at approximately 08:00Z. All four charm centroids read negativeCharm across 110 to 338 contributing strikes on both native and ETF rails, and netCharmDaily is negative at -19,122. The drift card is STALE and publishes no read. This is the main evidence against the constructive case in this instrument, and the reason the long is a level-hold trade rather than a conviction trade.

GAMMA
DOWN · 52

0DTE net GEX is approximately -$142M on a like-for-like basis, not the -$1.37B the store prints, because the native 0DTE rows use a 5.35-minute fixed-floor time-to-expiry against an actual 8.24 hours remaining, inflating the figure 9.62 times. Corrected, the OPEX bucket at -$1.24B is roughly nine times today's, so the gamma concentration is Friday rather than now. Native front walls remain unusable at open interest 6, 12, 33 and 84, so the ETF-projected rail carries the wall structure throughout.

VOMMA
UP · 55

Net vomma positive with vommaRegime positiveHigh and vexConfidence high at 0.9775. Vol-of-vol amplifies rather than absorbs, relevant with spot sitting near a 217,989 vega node on volatility-expiry morning.

ULTIMA
DOWN · 35

Net ultima negative on both families today, unlike Monday when the signs differed. Reported for completeness at 0.530 chain coverage; no position rests on it.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
-0.823

speed
LATENT
0.000

vomma
LATENT
7332097.000

zomma
LATENT
-0.015

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile0
Skew Pctile86
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily MoveNot captured
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

CONFIRMING · COMPLETE
4 native levels received secondary cross-asset confirmation. Strongest alignment sits around 29469.00 via component confluence zones.

Native futures levels stay primary. Use ETF conversions as corroboration and component zones as provisional structure only, especially when the overlay is partial or quality flags are present.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

4 matched levels
PUT WALL
19 conf
29469.00
0DTE put wall (NQ 29469 / NDX 29378.4)

0DTE put wall (NQ 29469 / NDX 29378.4) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.

COMP 2
VANNA ANTIMAGNET
19 conf
29478.00
Largest vanna antimagnet (NQ 29478 / NDX 29387.5)

Largest vanna antimagnet (NQ 29478 / NDX 29387.5) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.

COMP 2
PUT WALL
19 conf
29491.00
Vega node + 0DTE dominant node and put wall (NQ 29491 / NDX 29400)

Vega node + 0DTE dominant node and put wall (NQ 29491 / NDX 29400) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.

COMP 2
VANNA ANTIMAGNET
19 conf
29508.00
Vanna antimagnet (NQ 29508 / NDX 29417.1)

Vanna antimagnet (NQ 29508 / NDX 29417.1) is secondarily confirmed by 10-stock zone 29503.85-29566.38.

COMP 2

ETF Confirmation Levels

QQQ ratio-converted
No ETF ratio confirmations were retained.Missing ETF spot or source coverage can suppress this list on bounded runs.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
CALL_WALL
0.41
29503.85 - 29566.38
center 29535.77 · 10 names · DTE 2

10-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 29535.77. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.40
29454.90 - 29535.89
center 29495.16 · 9 names · DTE 2

9-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29495.16. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

CALL_WALL
0.39
29484.45 - 29587.29
center 29532.10 · 15 names · DTE 0

15-stock call-side confluence cluster centered 29532.10. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

PUT_SUPPORT
0.39
29484.45 - 29548.15
center 29520.38 · 15 names · DTE 0

15-stock put-support confluence cluster centered 29520.38. Provisional component estimate, not a native executable level.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • Component zones rely on static/proxy weights rather than holdings-confirmed weights and stay secondary to native futures levels.
  • At least one component projection defaulted beta to 1.0, so component-zone placement is approximate.
  • Source coverage was degraded by quote gaps or pagination truncation, so missing confirmations are not a signal by themselves.
  • Parts of the overlay could not be converted onto the futures axis because a required live price was unavailable.
  • One or more component zones were built from a small contributor set and should be treated as provisional only.
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 48s
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.
  • MISSING_ETF_SPOT: cannot convert QQQ CALL_WALL

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 2 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20NQDOMINANT ANCHOR@ 26831.00FADE_ATHELDHigh print was 26827.00, four points shy of the 26831 anchor. The ceiling held and the contract closed back below at 26774.50.
2026-04-20NQPUT FLOOR@ 26689.00BUY_ON_TESTABSORBEDNQ broke below first support to 26593.75, but the move did not extend to 26499 structural support. The contract recovered and closed 26774.50, so the downside strike occurred but was ultimately absorbed.
Total Logged2
Scored2
Hit Rate50%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.