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Edition · Thursday, August 27, 2026·Archived · 3d ago · historical·27 Aug 2026 12:40 UTC

ESPOSITIVE

Spot7706.00Futures7719.00Basis+13.00SessionPRE_MARKET
Dealer Regime
POSITIVE_TOTAL_NEGATIVE_POCKET_AT_SPOT
NetGEX $8.4KRisk ELEVATED
Opening Type
OPEN AUCTION
Conf 35%Day TRENDGAP UP
Share Card
Accuracy Ledger1 logged · 1 scored0% hit rateFull ledger ↓
Desk Thesis · 2026-08-27

SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.

Express directional risk in ES and use NQ as the confirmation instrument rather than the other way round, because ES amplifies inside its 7647 to 7736 negative-gamma pocket while NQ damps above its flip. Long only above ES 7728 with NQ confirming above 29573, targeting ES 7738 then 7753, and do not chase into 7753 because above ES 7749 the regime turns damped positive gamma. Short on ES losing 7713 with NQ under 29491, targeting 7703, 7688 and 7663, with a second entry when NQ loses 29392. No new risk inside ES 7713 to 7728 or across the 13:30 to 13:45 UTC claims print.

Level Map

Confluence-ranked · distances from spot 7706.00
ES
SPX
Level
Action · Distance
ES7763.00
SPX7750.00
CALL WALL0DTE call stack top
WATCH+0.57% · conf 1
ES7754.00
SPX7741.00
VANNA MAGNETSPY 1DTE vanna magnet rank 1
WATCH+0.45% · conf 1
ES7753.00
SPX7740.00
CALL WALLDominant 0DTE call wall
WATCH+0.44% · conf 3
ES7748.60
SPX7735.60
GAMMA NEUTRAL0DTE Gamma Neutral - top of negative-gamma pocket
WATCH+0.38% · conf 3
ES7744.00
SPX7731.00
VANNA MAGNETSPY 1DTE vanna magnet rank 2
WATCH+0.32% · conf 1
ES7738.00
SPX7725.00
CALL WALLNative 0DTE call wall + cross-rail cluster
WATCH+0.25% · conf 3
ES7734.00
SPX7721.00
VANNA MAGNETSPY 0DTE vanna magnet rank 2
WATCH+0.19% · conf 1
ES7728.00
SPX7715.00
PUT WALLDominant 0DTE put node
WATCH+0.12% · conf 3
ES7719.00
SPX7706.00
GAMMA FLIPLive spot / ETF-projected 0DTE gamma flip
WATCH+0.00% · conf 2
ES7713.00
SPX7700.00
DOMINANT ANCHORCross-rail cluster + heaviest two-sided strike
WATCH-0.08% · conf 3
SPOT
ES7719.00
SPX7706.00
Range 7679.50–7758.50
ES7704.00
SPX7691.00
VANNA MAGNETSPY 0DTE vanna magnet rank 1
WATCH-0.19% · conf 1
ES7703.00
SPX7690.00
VANNA ANTIMAGNET1DTE vanna antimagnet rank 1
WATCH-0.21% · conf 2
ES7688.00
SPX7675.00
DOMINANT ANCHORLargest vega shelf + strongest cluster + charm centroid
WATCH-0.40% · conf 2
ES7674.00
SPX7661.00
VANNA ANTIMAGNETSPY 0DTE vanna antimagnet rank 1
WATCH-0.58% · conf 2
ES7663.00
SPX7650.00
PUT FLOOR1DTE put wall + 1DTE vanna magnet
WATCH-0.73% · conf 3
ES7660.30
SPX7647.30
STRUCTURAL FLOOR0DTE pocket floor - lower Gamma Neutral crossing
WATCH-0.76% · conf 3

Level Reaction

Intraday tape · ES · 2026-08-27
Loading session tape…

Greek Pressure

Dealer directional forces · next session
GAMMA
COMPRESSION · 78

0DTE net gamma is POSITIVE at +$8.418B rebuilt at live spot with implied volatility re-solved by Black-Scholes, but the cumulative profile is NEGATIVE continuously from 7647 to 7736 and spot at 7706 sits mid-pocket. Dealers are short gamma where price is and long gamma at both edges, so moves amplify inside the band and are absorbed at 7647 and 7736. The published rail reads -$4.276B; that sign is a stale-underlying artefact, corroborated as wrong by four independent checks including +16,977 net call open interest within 40 points of spot. Dollar-delta evidence folded in here: net DEX -$2.44B is not read directionally because the cancellation ratio is 0.920, an 8 percent residual of a $30.6B gross book.

VANNA
NEUTRAL · 62

Strike-located vanna is used, not the aggregate. The 1DTE structuralActual rail puts an antimagnet band at 7690-7695 with spot inside it, and magnets at 7650 below and 7731-7741 above. Vanna agrees with the gamma pocket - price is at an unstable point and gets pushed to an edge. The netVanna aggregate flips sign between the published rail at -10,766 and an independent recomputation at live spot at +1,081,258, so no directional claim is made from the aggregate. Confidence tier high, score 0.9875, vomma regime positiveHigh.

CHARM
DOWN · 40

Charm pressure centroid sits at 7675.18, below spot, dominant side negative. Reported with the standing caveat that a pressure centroid is not a price target, and with a second caveat specific to today: the centroid is within half a point of the frozen underlying at 7675.70, so it is very likely spot-pinned rather than structural. Not promoted to a level, and no path-of-least-resistance language is drawn from it.

VOMMA
UP · 66

Net vomma strongly positive, regime positiveHigh - the book gets longer volatility as volatility rises, amplifying any IV expansion off a 7.7th-percentile VIX. Veta is folded in here because the schema has no VETA row: net veta +6.63e9 says long-volatility exposure decays through the session, so the vomma amplification is a morning phenomenon that fades into the afternoon. Size accordingly.

COLOR
NEUTRAL · 30

Net color daily +23,890 on the published rail against -2,148 on the independent recomputation. Both are small relative to the gamma reading and both are computed on chains where the vendor greek set is compromised. Gamma decay is not a decisive input today.

SPEED
NEUTRAL · 12

Speed at the GN0 strike 7680. This is a SINGLE-STRIKE level property, never comparable to a net aggregate, and it carries the standing coverage caveat that speed is non-zero on only about 1 percent of contracts. Not read as a live third-order rail.

ZOMMA
NEUTRAL · 10

Zomma at the GN0 strike 7680, a single-strike level property rather than an aggregate. Magnitude is negligible.

ULTIMA
NEUTRAL · 22

Net ultima negative, mildly offsetting the positive vomma amplification at the far wings. Context only, not decisive at 0DTE.

Higher-Order

Second + third-order greeks
color
LATENT
23889.940

Net color daily +23,890 published against -2,148 recomputed; small either way and not decisive

speed
LATENT
88374.560

Speed at the GN0 strike 7680 reads 88,374.56 - a single-strike level property with the standing 1 percent coverage caveat, not a rail

vomma
LATENT
29849836.000

Net vomma +29.85M, regime positiveHigh - amplifies IV expansion off a low base, decaying through the session per net veta +6.63e9

zomma
LATENT
-0.728

Zomma at the GN0 strike 7680 reads -0.7284, a single-strike level property of negligible magnitude

provenance
LATENT
NaN

IV Intelligence

Quadrant · skew · term structure
Regime Quadrant
Not captured
ATM IVUnavailable
IV Percentile8
Skew Pctile90
Skew ShapeSMIRK
Expected Daily Move±0.51% / ±0.51%
Term Structure
Not captured
Term structure not captured for this sessionExpected: ivRegime.termStructure as array of IV fractions per tenor (front/mid/back).

Cross-Asset Confirmation / Component Confluence

PARTIAL · PARTIAL_ERROR · partial
Cross-asset confirmation was only partially available in this run. Keep the native futures map primary.

No usable ETF ratio levels or component zones were produced. This should reduce confidence in the overlay, not alter the native thesis by itself.

Secondary confirmation only. Native index and MCP levels remain primary. MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable; if component confluence is attached it was produced by the system-level Polygon overlay path and remains opt-in, secondary, and provisional rather than an executable native futures level. Component weights are static/proxy unless explicitly holdings-confirmed, beta may be defaulted to 1.0, and TOP_10 lists should not be treated as quantitatively ranked until liquidity plus holdings/beta calibration are implemented.

Native Levels Confirmed

0 matched levels
No direct native-level overlap was captured in this bounded cross-asset run.That weakens confirmation quality, but it does not replace the native futures map.

ETF Confirmation Levels

SPY ratio-converted
No ETF ratio confirmations were retained.Missing ETF spot or source coverage can suppress this list on bounded runs.

Component Confluence Zones

Provisional only
No component confluence zones were retained.That can happen when contributor coverage is thin or the bounded runtime exits early.

Cautions

Quality-aware language
  • MCP-native individual stock Greek scans are unavailable. If component zones are attached, they come from the system-level Polygon overlay path and remain secondary/provisional to native index and MCP levels.
  • The overlay scan was partial because the runtime budget was hit or a source stage degraded. Treat absent confirmations as unknown, not bearish or bullish evidence.

Overlay Diagnostics

Runtime 21s
No converted levels or confluence zones were produced
  • LIGHTER_SELECTION_PATH: using static seed order for this overlay run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component resolution.
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_REQUIRED
  • ETF_SOURCE: contracts:PAGINATION_TRUNCATED
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Selected universe uses STATIC_SEED_FALLBACK and HOLDINGS_STALE until issuer/provider holdings adapters exist.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: Using static seed order for this run to avoid a duplicate liquidity pre-scan before component source resolution.
  • COMPONENT_SOURCE: NVDA: NVDA: contracts lookup via NVDA returned RATE_LIMITED (You've exceeded the maximum requests per minute, please wait or upgrade your subscription to continue. https://massive.com/pricing)

LBF Status

Look-Below-And-Fail · conditions armed
0
NOT ARMED · 0/3 conditions
0
Tension Index

Accuracy Log

Outcomes · last 1 levels scored
DateSymbolLevelPredictedOutcomeNotes
2026-04-20ESNEG GEX TRIGGER@ 7152.00SHORT_BELOWABSORBEDOpened 7148.25 below the 7152 trigger and sold to 7121.50, but downside follow-through stalled well above 7102. First 30-minute close was 7156.75 and session closed 7152.00, so bearish impulse fired but was absorbed and reclaimed by end of day.
Total Logged1
Scored1
Hit Rate0%
Best Level Type

Archive

Recent editions
2026-08-28 · NQ
The Nasdaq is net positive on 0DTE gamma but is trading just BELOW its 0DTE flip on the rail that actually has depth, which puts it in a shallow negative-gamma pocket rather than in a damped one. The ETF rail carries 240,914 contracts within 1.5 percent of spot against the native book's 7,483 - a 32 to 1 ratio - and it places the cumulative crossing at 29,626-29,667 index, above spot, while the thin native rail places it below. Being under the flip does not contradict an upward lean, it amplifies it: impulses are not damped here, so a push accelerates into the nodes overhead rather than being sold into. Vanna agrees emphatically - all four native antimagnets sit in a band that contains spot while all four magnets sit above it, the strongest repulsion being -20,028 essentially on price. The counterweight is charm, which flipped negative early and stayed there, a mild drag that the S&P does not have.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-28 · ES
The S&P is in strongly positive gamma with spot 15 points above a Gamma Neutral that has been rising all morning, and the book is asymmetric in a way that supports both halves of a grind-up-with-a-trapdoor read: the entire 0DTE put wing sits at ONE strike, 7700 carrying -$2,890M on 12,021 contracts, while call gamma runs continuously across eleven strikes from 7745 to 7800 with no single dominant obstacle - so the downside is a cliff at one level and the upside is a ramp. Vanna says the same thing from a different direction, with a -23,142 antimagnet at 7717.66 and a +24,764 magnet at 7767.77 straddling spot. Charm is positive and building 28.7 percent this morning. The path of least resistance is up toward the 7765-7775 complex where the dominant gamma node, the vanna magnet and the cumulative crossing all coincide.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX is pinned on the largest gamma node in its own book - the native 29,510 strike at +$526M and the ETF 718 strike at +$295.7M land seven points apart on separately measured chains, joined by a STRONG allCredible cluster at percentile 0.948 - inside a strongly positive-gamma regime where dealer hedging damps every impulse, and since the open the vanna channel has inverted at spot from antimagnet to magnet so that it now reinforces the pin rather than fighting it.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · NQ
NDX has cleared into damped positive gamma with spot sitting at the top of its 29,326 to 29,483 flip band, so unlike the S&P it absorbs impulses rather than amplifying them - but price is resting directly on the 0DTE vanna antimagnet at QQQ 717 with the dominant magnet of the whole board 123 points above at QQQ 720, so it is unlikely to sit still, and the 718 call wall at NQ 29,573 is the gate that decides which way it goes.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-27 · ES
SPX is sitting on its 0DTE gamma flip inside a negative-gamma pocket running from 7647 to 7736, so intraday moves amplify rather than damp until price reaches an edge - and the upper edge is guarded by the largest one-sided call-gamma block on either chain, roughly +$8.0B from 7740 to 7820 with zero put open interest above 7755.
OPEN AUCTION · TREND
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · RTY
RUT is the un-pinned index. It carries roughly 1.6 percent of SPX's dealer gamma (+$65M against +$4,010M) while pricing 171 percent of its implied volatility (21.90 percent against 12.82), which works out to an expected move of 0.64 percent against SPX's 0.40. Measured against a VIX-implied daily of 0.986 percent, RUT is priced at 65 percent of the 30-day equivalent where SPX is at 41 - the front-day compression dominating the large-cap complex this week is much weaker in small caps, and RUT retained 80 percent of its Tuesday-close front-day variance overnight against the SPX complex's 64 percent. The structure is balanced and the discriminator is unusually well defined despite a thin chain and a broken vendor IV field: the cumulative-GEX crossing has printed inside a 0.20 point band across fourteen polls and five hours, with spot 2 points above it. The ceiling is the STRONG 0.797 cluster at RUT 3017 where IWM's call wall sits on all three listed expiries; the floor is RUT 2997-3000, the only price both rails independently mark.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · NQ
NQ is structurally coiled with a genuine upside pull that is capped about 150 points above spot. Spot sits INSIDE a contiguous vanna antimagnet band running NQ 29,181 to 29,269, with a contiguous magnet band NQ 29,328 to 29,416 immediately above and nothing between them, so vanna is repelling price from where it is and attracting it higher. Two independent pieces of evidence support that lean: the NQ family is call-skewed into the event, with NDX 0DTE ATM calls at 16.4 against puts at 14.9 and QQQ at 21.1 against 16.2, a REVERSE_SMIRK on both, while the ES family is put-skewed; and QQQ 0DTE positive gamma built 12x through the pre-market. Against it, the NQ family is the fragile one - underperforming ES by 16 basis points overnight, charm negative on both native and ETF books where SPX is positive, spot 47 points BELOW its own Gamma Neutral where SPX is 2 points above, and its call wall and flip both migrating DOWN while the ES flip migrated UP. The resolution is that this is a two-sided, discriminator-dependent session rather than a directional one.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
NEUTRALPOSITIVE
2026-08-26 · ES
ES is in a positive and building 0DTE gamma regime with spot two points above the most corroborated level in the complex - SPX 0DTE Gamma Neutral at 7670.57 / ES 7685.1, which is also the STRONG cross-rail cluster at the 0.949 GEX percentile. Positive gamma more than doubled through the pre-market while the put wall and the flip both migrated up and the call wall never moved, a constructive drift on every component. The 0DTE straddle implies only plus or minus 31 ES points, 41 percent of the VIX-implied daily, so the base case is a small, dampened, range-bound session. The structural asymmetry is in time rather than price: 0DTE is the only positive-gamma tenor in the whole ES complex and its dampening expires at today's close, into a negative-gamma 1DTE book that prices NVDA and whose largest negative node sits overhead at SPX 7715.
OPEN AUCTION · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
2026-08-25 · NQ
NDXP is live for the first time today and the book is unambiguously positive gamma at +$1.42B with the entire gamma shelf stacked above spot at NQ 29440-29496, while session VWAP at 29331-29337 sits precisely on the QQQ 712 node and the 0.998-percentile cluster - so a reversion into 29326-29337 followed by extension into the overhead shelf is the mechanically favoured path, with the caveat that long-gamma dealers decelerate the extension rather than accelerating it.
OPEN DRIVE UP · NORMAL
BULLISHPOSITIVE
OpenGamma Intelligence · Schema v1.1.0This brief is not investment advice.